Welcome to the Fake Sharp!

A quick hello to our new subscribers over the past week. 👋 

In this jam-packed issue, we delve into the NFL's top-scoring offenses, analyzing player combinations for each team to enhance your stacking strategies.

As well as announcing our giveaway winners!

Plus the best links and resources we found on all things Best Ball:

• Identifying spike weeks by ADP for Weekly Winners

• The Reasons to Draft in Mid-August

• Upside rookies and second year players

Decoding the NFL's Top Offenses: Combinatorial Ownership Analysis

When it comes to drafting on Underdog Fantasy you want be picking guys that score touchdowns.

Here’s the list of teams with the best odds to score the most points during the regular season on DK Sportsbook.

To enhance our investigation, we've harnessed a valuable tool developed by the ingenious Bobby Stats. This resource empowers us to scrutinize BBM4 combinatorial ownership, allowing us to delve into player combinations team by team and extract insightful findings.

Without further ado, the teams are presented below in order of their odds to secure the title of highest-scoring team.

Kansas City Chiefs +500

🔥  Mahomes + Kelce = 34%

✌️ Mahomes + Skyy Moore + Toney = 7%

🤑 Mahomes + Kelce + Pacheco = 7%

Bottom Line: No surprises here—the Chiefs flaunt an explosive offense led by arguably the finest quarterback in the league. The pairing of Mahomes and Travis Kelce commands a noteworthy 34% ownership percentage. Yet, it's worth noting that Chiefs' stacks might lean top-heavy, evidenced by a noticeable decline in combined ownership percentage when Mahomes, Kelce, and Isiah Pacheco are aligned—merely 7%. Alternatively, if the Kelce option was missed and Mahomes is paired with both Moore and Toney, the ownership percentage stays at 7%.

Philadelphia Eagles +600

🔥  Hurts + AJ Brown = 34%

✌️ Hurts + AJ Brown + Devonta Smith = 1%

🤑 Hurts + AJ Brown + Dallas Goedert = 7%

Bottom Line: Prepare your wallet—these players come at a premium. A combo of Hurts and AJ Brown garners a solid 24%, while Hurts teaming up with Devonta Smith hovers at 17%. The sought-after Hurts double stack, due to the wide receivers' ADP, registers at a mere 1%. The Eagles' offense displays remarkable concentration, as both Hurts stacked with Smith and Brown, along with Goedert, exceed 7% ownership. But that's not all—Hurts aligned with Swift, Penny, or Gainwell all eclipse the 10% ownership mark.

Cincinnati Bengals +850

🔥 Burrow + Chase = 30%

✌️ Burrow + Chase + Higgins= 13%

🤑 Burrow + Chase + Mixon = 3%

Bottom Line: The Burrow and Chase pairing prominently stands at 30%. Expanding the spectrum, a Burrow double stack with both Chase and Higgins clocks in at 13%. Things take an intriguing twist when Joe Mixon enters the equation. Burrow paired with Mixon and any other pass-catcher stays below 5% ownership across the board, presenting a ripe opportunity for a Bengals mega stack.

Buffalo Bills +850

🔥 Josh Allen + Diggs = 28%

✌️ Josh Allen + Diggs + Gabe Davis = 10%

🤑 Josh Allen + Diggs + James Cook = 7%

Bottom Line: The connection from Josh Allen to Stefon Diggs commands a solid 28%. Expanding on this, Allen in tandem with Diggs and Gabe Davis reaches 10%. However, the introduction of James Cook results in a dip for both pairings, each falling at or below the 7% mark. The curious case of Kincaid's pairing with Allen stands at a somewhat amusing 31% ownership.

Dallas Cowboys +1200

🔥 Prescott + Lamb = 28%

✌️ Prescott + Lamb + Cooks = 12%

🤑 Prescott + Lamb + Pollard = 2%

Bottom Line: The partnership between Dak and CeeDee Lamb rings in at an impressive 28%. Elevating the dynamic, the trio comprising Dak, CeeDee Lamb, and Pollard presents an intriguing option, yet holds a modest 2% ownership. This arrangement gains attention due to the availability of Pollard and Lamb within the early rounds of the draft. Moreover, the pairing of Jake Ferguson with Dak and Lamb remains an underutilized approach, clocking in at just 2% ownership.

Detroit Lions +1400

🔥 Goff + Amon Ra St. Brown = 40%

✌️ Goff + Amon Ra St. Brown + Jameson Williams = 6%

🤑 Goff + Amon Ra St. Brown + Gibbs = 12%

Bottom Line: The partnership between Goff and Amon-Ra St. Brown claims a staggering 40% ownership among the sampled drafts. Noteworthy trends emerge as well—Goff paired with Gibbs and any other pass catcher demonstrates robust ownership percentages between 7-12%. However, Goff's pairing with Montgomery and other Detroit pass catchers garners ownership of 6% or less.

San Francisco 49ers +1400

🔥 Purdy + Deebo Samuel = 28%

✌️ Purdy + Deebo + Aiyuk = 6.5%

🤑 Purdy + Deebo + McCaffrey = 4%

Bottom Line: A dynamic where skill players carry a hefty price tag while late quarterbacks come at a relative bargain. Notably, McCaffrey's coupling with another SF skill player frequently occurs, hovering around 10% when combined with Aiyuk, Deebo, or Kittle. The ownership for QB/RB/1 pass catcher stacks is comparably low with Purdy, yet all Purdy, McCaffrey plus a pass catcher stacks garner an ownership rate of 3% or less—signifying an accessible approach while being able to secure Purdy around pick 167.

Los Angeles Chargers +1600

🔥 Herbert + Keenan Allen = 24%

✌️ Herbert + Allen + Mike Williams = 3%

🤑 Herbert + Allen + Austin Ekeler = 5.25%

Bottom Line: The Chargers boast one of the highest percentages for QB1 and RB1 pairings, with Herbert and Ekeler pairing in an impressive 21% of drafts. Notably, the double stack of Herbert with Keenan and Mike Williams is a rarity, appearing in only 3% of drafts due to similar ADPs. Similarly, those drafting Herbert are often aligning with Gerald Everett, with both being selected 35% of the time. Furthermore, the Herbert-Everett duo, paired with an additional skill player, consistently commands ownership rates exceeding 10%.

Minnesota Vikings +1800

🔥 Cousins + Justin Jefferson = 38.5%

✌️ Cousins + Jefferson + Jordan Addison = 10.25%

🤑 Cousins + Jefferson + Alexander Mattison = 2.75%

Bottom Line: A fascinating observation comes to light: while Minnesota players are appealing, the realization hits that their top skill players are off the board within the top 70 picks. Yet, Cousins, remarkably, is QB13 on the Underdog. Expect Cousins to be paired with at least one pass catcher. Addison, Jefferson, and Hockenson pairings all secure ownership exceeding 25% or more.

Seattle Seahawks +1900

🔥 Geno Smith + DK Metcalf = 31%

✌️ Geno Smith + DK Metcalf + JSN = 6%

🤑 Geno Smith + DK Metcalf + Kenneth Walker = 4.25%

Bottom Line: Last year underscored the prominence of Geno Smith, and his value still holds at QB15 on Underdog. The first skill player available, DK Metcalf, is only nabbed around pick 28. Geno double stacks are a highlight, with all combinations of JSN, DK, and Lockett hovering at 7% or higher ownership. Of interest, RB2 Zach Charbonnet and Geno are paired more often than Geno and Kenneth Walker, clocking in at 13.25% and 13%, respectively. Despite being a higher-projected offense, Fant isn't receiving as much love in stacks compared to other high-powered offenses. Pairing him with Geno claims 17% ownership, which decreases to 6% or less when paired with Geno and another Seattle pass catcher.

***Note: Data is as of 08/07/23, and includes a sample of 400 BBM drafts dating back to April. This draft data is viewed wit 95% confidence rate and a 5% margin of error.***

The Best Links

💡 Strategy

Where do spike weeks come from by ADP for Weekly Winners (link)

Strategy Data for Underdog’s Weekly Winners via Hayden Winks (link)

Why Getting Less Things Right is the Key to Best Ball (link)

The Reasons to Draft in Mid-August (link)

Does ADP Matter in Best Ball? (link)

🌶️ Player Takes + Stacks

Best Ball Fantasy Strategy: How to Value Rookies (link)

Sleepers and Busts 2023: ETR Staff (link)

The 5 Players Pat Kerrane Can’t Stop Drafting (link)

Few middle-round players can match James Cook’s upside (link)

5 Rookies you should be drafting (link)

An overview of the stacking landscape on Underdog (link)

👀 ICYMI

Neil Farley makes The Case for Radicalized Zero-RB Strategy (link)

Congrats to our Winners!

@simpletonsports

@bestballgenius

@nateexclaim

Puppy Chow: Bite-Sized Content from around the Industry

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