The Case For Radicalized Zero-RB

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• A featured piece by our resident data expert Neil Farley. If you haven’t already, make sure to go follow Neil on twitter- @FeilNarley. Enjoy!

Examining Structure: The Case For Radicalized Zero-RB

The draft landscape is ever-evolving, and in the realm of Best Ball, the reduction of rounds from 20 to 18 in Best Ball Mania has brought about a significant impact on roster construction. With this shift, the need for intentional roster allocation and strategic player selection has become crucial. In this article, we'll explore the concept of Radicalized Zero-RB and its potential advantages.

Mike Leone's Best Ball Manifesto considered roster construction in terms of draft capital and positional allocation. By combining positional allocation in conjunction with draft capital allocation, we gain a more comprehensive understanding of how teams allocate their resources. While drafting a team loaded with seven running backs can prove advantageous when spending minimal draft capital, investing significant draft capital in that position can potentially hamper a team's overall success.

To shed light on the topic, I created tables that reveal the average advance rate based on the count of players at each position and the quintile bucket of draft capital spent on those positions. Several notable trends emerged from the analysis.

*Draft capital is bucketed into quintiles. 1 indicates bottom 20% draft capital spent, while 5 indicates top 20% draft capital spent.*

In the quarterback category, the data showed relatively even performance across the board, except for teams with bottom 20% draft capital. Interestingly, selecting two quarterbacks appeared to have a positive impact on the advance rate.

For running backs, the optimal approach seemed to involve acquiring volume at a low cost. While teams that invested high draft capital in running backs demonstrated higher advance rates in certain cases, drafting seven RBs at a low cost still outperformed in terms of advance rate. Additionally, slotting a high-cost RB into the third or fourth bucket of draft capital allocation proved to be a viable strategy.

Wide receivers showcased their more robust advance rate when teams drafted a few highly touted early-round options. The highest advance rates radiate from the upper right. Making sure to prioritize at least a minimum level of wide receiver spending in the first ten or seven rounds improved results.

Tight end has less clear trends. Travis Kelce has remained a cheat code-crushing advancement, but plentiful low-cost TE rooms also preformed well.

Examining the Noticeable Trends:

• Generally spending beyond at least a certain threshold at quarterback improves advance rate

• Running back looks to be the one position with a clear year-over-year trend where quantity can outweigh quality

• In the past, investing in high-end wide receivers has helped teams advance

• Tight end requires very little attention. Spending at the position can pay handsomely or be a devastating cost

Drafters often venture outside their comfort zones at a particular position to gain a competitive edge or out of necessity. In the case of zero-RB enthusiasts, running back becomes the position of choice due to the relatively low draft capital allocated to it. As advocated by Hayden Winks, being more radical with zero-RB and embracing discomfort at the wide receiver position can lead to success. Relying on five or six stud receivers to fill the weekly spots and possibly the flex position may seem ambitious, but historical data suggests it can be a winning strategy.

Taking a closer look at the flex position, it becomes apparent that running backs offer superior potential due to their higher spike weeks. However, this doesn't necessarily mean high draft capital should be allocated to them. Instead, it's crucial to create as many opportunities as possible for explosive performances. I highly recommend reading Winks's new article on where these spike weeks come from to gain further insights.

Example BBM4 Team: Radicalized Zero-RB approach

While there is room for improvement, and some stacks were missed, the team's wide receiver corps presents excellent value and possesses the potential to capture significant spikes. Each RB I chose for this team had a role, except for the unsigned McKinnon at the time, and offered tangible upside. Many drafters tend to shy away from the uncertainty in this range, but attacking it with volume can provide potentially usable weeks and immense upside.

Based on last year's quintile markers, this particular squad falls under the 5151 structure (QB/RB/WR/TE). Notably, this team registered in the top 20% bucket despite having six receivers, one of whom was drafted as late as the 15th round.

TL;DR: Pushing the boundaries of the zero-RB strategy can reveal additional opportunities and help avoid diminishing returns when allocating excessive draft capital to a single position. Although this niche strategy may not be a go-to approach for every draft, it remains uncommon, data-driven, and has demonstrated strong results. Embracing the full potential of Radicalized Zero-RB is an underutilized strategy that offers immense upside.

Data Note: The draft capital charts I utilized were based on a minimum of 1000 teams for BBM III, 500 teams for BBM II, and 250 teams for BBM I. This resulted in some small sample sizes, especially for teams with only one or four QB/TE. However, averaging the data from the past three Best Ball Mania competitions, the 5151 team structures boasted an impressive 18.5% average advance rate. Due to BBM I overlaying and the associated data having less detail, advance rates are calculated as the top sixth of team scores for this tournament.

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