Welcome to The Fake Sharp!

Here is what we got today:

• Unveiling our Strategy for Weekly Winners

• ADP Risers and Fallers

• Navigating Best Ball Traps

The Best Links

💡 Strategy

RB Success Rate Small Sample Stars by Legendary Upside (link)

Keys to taking down Best Ball Tournaments (link)

How to Beat Weekly Winners (link)

Week 17 Game Stacks are still pretty rare (link)

When to Draft Off Rankings vs. ADP and Navigating Best Ball Traps (link)

🌶️ Player Takes + Stacks

Reach for the Skyy by Madison Parkhill (link)

Arbitrage Fantasy Football Picks via MB’s Fantasy Life (link)

ADP Risers and Fallers (link)

Upside Wins Fantasy Football Championships (link)

👀 ICYMI

Neil Farley makes The Case for Radicalized Zero-RB Strategy (link)

Our Strategy for Underdog’s Weekly Winners

While we haven't completed any weekly winner drafts yet, we'd like to share our initial thoughts on this format.

Although this tournament is a best ball draft, we believe that focusing on this format from a DFS perspective might be a more fruitful approach. Competing against over 200,000 teams on a weekly basis can be challenging. However, if you choose to dive into this format, here's our recommended strategy:

• Optimize for ONE WEEK. If you’re max entering- focus all entries on the same week (e.g. week 3)

• Draft only 1QB and don’t be afraid to punt the position

• Worry less about correlation- in such a large tournament, we’d be less focused on mega-team stacking and focused more on individual player ceiling

• Downplay divisional stacking

• Focus on leveraging teams at the “onesie” positions

• Draft undrafted players

1: Pick Your Target Week. If you're going all-in on this tournament, we recommend focusing on a single week to optimize your chances of success. Just like in DFS, where you run an optimizer for multiple lineups, select one week (preferably early in the season) to pick your entire portfolio of players from. Weeks 1-5 are great options, as they provide ample information and more assurances on player health. Additionally, consider targeting weeks 7 or 13, where six teams are on bye. While week 7 might be advantageous due to its timing, week 13 offers a unique opportunity as it has only one divisional game. By avoiding divisional stacks, you eliminate the correlation advantage of other teams. Although player health may introduce some variables in week 13, it stands out as an excellent choice, especially with top quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and Justin Fields on bye weeks. So, while other teams are prioritizing elite QB early, you can spend up on a stud RB or WR.

2: Roster Construction. We can learn a lot from previous big tournaments like the DK Milly Maker and Fanduel's Sunday Millions. Based on TJ's breakdown of Fanduel's Sunday Millions, we can craft a winning roster strategy. The first rule is to select only one quarterback. Last season, in 9 out of 16 weeks, the winning lineup featured a QB/WR stack, with an opponent bring back present in 5 of those 9 weeks. As a secondary stack, consider pairing a running back (RB) with a wide receiver (WR) from the same team. This secondary stack adds another layer of correlation to your lineup. Beyond the stacks, focus on selecting high-ceiling players who can deliver big performances. Depending on your chosen week, you can opt for a full-blown game stack if the matchups and player availability align. However, we lean more towards a skinny stack approach, because over-stacking could lead to dead roster spots that could’ve otherwise been spent on a high ceiling player on another team for the majority of your teams.

3.Downplay Correlation: In large fields like this, focusing less on lineup correlation can be advantageous. Specifically mega-team stacks. One thing we’d highly advise against that is common in season long best ball is QB/RB stacks. Although it may be positively correlated over the course of an entire season, they are usually negatively correlated on a weekly basis. With such a massive field, getting boxed into a particular stack might not be your ticket to fantasy greatness. Instead, scoop up some ADP value and take a shot at hitting a massive parlay with individual players. You never know when that cheap QB will deliver a monster 25+ point performance, allowing you to splurge on high-ceiling RB, WR, or TE.

4.Beware of Divisional Stacking: This is coming from a DFS specific lens and is not a hard and fast rule. But sometimes divisional games tend to be less explosive from a fantasy perspective. Teams are familiar with each other, and these matchups often sometimes lack the fireworks we seek. Additionally, keep in mind that in Week 18, all games are divisional, limiting the number of correlated games available.

5.Leverage the "Onesie" Positions: Quarterbacks and tight ends tend to be positions where players are willing to overspend in this format. By going against the trend and selecting just one player at each position, you can gain leverage. If elite players at QB or TE are injured, fading them entirely can provide a significant advantage. Alternatively, if you're targeting a specific game for a specific week and missed out on your QB target, consider selecting the running back from that team instead.  For example, if you really like the Eagles in week 7 against the Dolphins and miss out on Hurts and his pass catchers, take a stab on a one off RB like Penny or Swift. That way if the Eagles score 4 touchdowns and 3 are on the ground, your RB is levered against Hurts teams.

Other thoughts:

Draft undrafted players- this becomes a whole lot easier when you target a specific week and start to build out a portfolio of certain teams. It makes the player pool smaller, allowing you to reach on players that you wouldn’t have considered otherwise.

Slow Drafts only (even though we despise them) - it’s too hard to optimize for a specific week doing fast drafts for this format

It’s okay to leave an elite rushing QB unstacked

Draft for absolute ceiling- no RB handcuffs 

To conclude: Overall, this isn’t our favorite tournament or payout structure but keep these insights in mind if you're ready to tackle Weekly Winners head on. Good luck, and comment or share any feedback!

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