The Power Of Closing Line ADP Value

Plus: Five Question Friday with Chris Spags

Author

Fake Sharp
May 12, 2023

Welcome to The Fake Sharp newsletter- a newsletter about Best Ball where we don’t pretend to be something we’re not.

Here is what we’re serving up today:

  • Best Ball Risers and Fallers

  • The Power of Closing Line ADP Value

  • Five Question Friday With Chris Spags

  • Puppy Chow: Bite-Sized Content From Around The Industry

The Power Of Closing Line ADP Value

When it comes to Best Ball, every draft pick holds immense value. One crucial metric is Closing Line ADP (Average Draft Position) value. Understanding and leveraging this concept can give you a significant edge over your competition. We will be referencing this tweet and podcast by Mike Leone to explore the importance of Closing Line ADP value and how it can help you build a super team.

Closing Line ADP value is calculated by subtracting the player's ADP at the start of the season from their ADP when drafting ends. For example, if you select Trey Lance at pick 150 early in the summer and his ADP drops to 125 right before the season starts, you've gained 25 picks of ADP value.

Real Time ADP value is what you see when you draft in real time. For example, if you took Geno Smith at pick 100 but his ADP is 108, you’ve lost 8 picks of ADP value.

Why is Closing Line ADP value so crucial? Let's break it down:

  1. Draft Efficiency and Value: By targeting players with higher Closing Line ADP value, you can gain an advantage over 90% of teams. If you find yourself in the top 10% of ADP value (Value Bucket 1), it means you got more ADP value in your drafts than 90% of teams. On the other hand, if you’re in Bucket 10, you were in the bottom 10% of ADP value. Meaning you lost a lot of ADP value and 90% of the teams got more ADP value than you.

  2. Expected Value (EV) Impact: Expected Value is a vital metric that estimates your team's potential success. Calculated by considering the odds of advancing through each stage of the season (regular season, playoffs, finals), teams in Bucket 1 had an EV of approximately $35, representing a 50% increase over the neutral EV of $22. Conversely, teams in Bucket 10 have an EV of $10, a 50% decrease in comparison.

  3. Advancement Probability: Bucket 1 teams also benefit from a 51% increase in the likelihood of advancing out of the regular season. With a base case advance rate of around 16.7%, these teams advance nearly 50% more frequently, positioning themselves for playoff success.

Real-time ADP value aligns with Closing Line ADP value and holds significant importance in drafts. Teams in the top five buckets of real-time draft capital value experience increased odds of advancing out of the regular season.

There is a clear trend: real-time ADP value matters. Being in the top two buckets corresponds to a substantial 25-28% increase in regular season advance rate. This translates to a 5% improvement in winning in the quarter and semi-finals, and a staggering 10-15% increase in the odds of taking down the finals. The impact is most significant in the regular season but extends to the playoffs, as advancing out of the regular season directly affects your chances of success. A 25% increase in regular season advance rate is equal to a 100% odds increase in winning the final.

So, how can you utilize this information to your advantage? Target higher variance players, such as handcuff running backs who can see their ADP rise dramatically if the starter gets injured. Uncertain situations and undervalued players, like DJ Moore or rookies, also present opportunities. Fast drafts increase your chances of falling into the top bucket, but be mindful of the higher risk associated with early drafting.

Both Closing Line ADP value and real-time ADP value are correlated. Selecting a falling running back at a decreasing real-time ADP value, only to see them rise several rounds in Closing Line ADP value, can massively boost your overall draft efficiency. You can check out Mike’s work and player Best Ball rankings at Establish the Run. Widely considered to be some of the best in the industry.

TL;DR: Understanding and capitalizing on Closing Line ADP value can significantly enhance your success. By targeting undervalued players, identifying market inefficiencies, and considering real-time ADP trends, you can increase your chances of advancing. If you’re interested in how some of the experts over at Ship Chasing are projecting current values- check out our thread summarizing the key takeaways.

Five Question Friday With Chris Spags 

Known as the co-host of the Splash Play podcast and youtube channel alongside Pete Overzet, Chris brings some serious best ball chops to the table. He’s also the founder of @ProblyApp and a former content creator at Skotastic, making him a prominent figure in the fantasy football community. We slid into Spags' DMs to pick his brain on all things Best Ball.

Q: What is your favorite activity to do while drafting Best Ball Teams?

A: I tend to do a draft daily while lifting weights. We have a gym in our house so I put my phone on a convenient little iPhone stand and try desperately not to start a set when my pick is about to be up. Besides that, I try to squeeze them in whenever I can and have the mental bandwidth just since it’s a haul to have a job, a startup, and a family while aspiring to max out all the major best ball tournaments.

Q: What is a common mistake you see new best ball players make and how can they get better?

A: The two biggest errors tend to be over stacking or overly prioritizing running backs. Stacking up your QB with his pass catchers is something to always shoot for even in the worst sniping rooms. And people can’t let go of how much the world prioritizes RBs in their season long leagues even though the position has changed in both fantasy and NFL teams’ perceptions. You have to keep up with the meta of both the real life parts and the fantasy parts.

Q: At the moment, who is your favorite late round sleeper?

A: I’m still on team Terrace Marshall since he was incredibly good last year and I want to believe a guy with his pedigree can rise to the top amidst a weak WR corps. Besides him, I think the Izzy Abanikanda dip is interesting. People seem to be avoiding him out of fear of Breece Hall after loving him pre-draft but he’s possibly one of the best levers against a much more highly drafted Breece. This probably ties into the 2nd question too: People sometimes don’t think enough about “What happens if the thing everyone expects to happen is wrong?”

Q: At the moment, who is your favorite team or stack to target?

A: I am in fact an Anthony Richardson obsessive and I won’t stop drafting him and the Colts until I get the sense he’s treated properly. Michael Pittman should see a value increase playing more outside, Alec Pierce can play a homeless man’s AJ Brown in Shane Steichen’s offense, and Josh Downs was the best rookie slot besides JSN. Too many people are dead set on the idea of “I won’t draft AR at his current price.”

Q: What would you do with the $3 million if you won BBM4?

A: I would continue to more expertly fund my sports betting startup, http://ProblyApp.com (make sure to sign up/get on the waitlist) as we will be launching a public product soon. I would also do a big giveaway for our Splash Play audience/the best ball community; before the BBM3 and DK finals, I had said if I won either I’d give away four fully bankrolled entries. I would do the same this year as well as make sure to give the highest possible tax-free kickback to the 5-10 people that mean the most to me day-to-day. And probably buy some stupid shit too since it can’t all be vaguely altruistic.

Q: Ok, we made it six questions. Have to ask, who is better at best ball, you or Pete Overzet?

A: Pete is genuinely one of the sharpest guys in the space. I got into Best Ball in large part from the contagious energy from his enthusiasm, the Ship Chasing guys, and the audience. I can’t give the guy enough credit. That said: I live this stuff, obsess over some of the best football advanced analytics in the world, and I am not afraid to dig my heels in on the football picture as I see it. If I could take Pete’s structural drafting and ADP sensitivity disciplines and my player knowledge and prediction, that would be the perfect drafter. But since neither of us is that perfect drafter, I’d always bet on me being the most directionally accurate if not actually accurate in the biz.

Looking to gain an edge?

Spike Week is the industry’s top Best Ball tools and information provider. Used by the top experts in the space, Spike Week makes you a better Best Ball sicko.

They have plenty of tools to help you get started. Features include:

  • Expert Rankings

  • Draft IQ and Draft Helper

  • Player Draft Rates and Ownership Projections

Puppy Chow: Bite-Sized Content from around the Industry

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