Welcome to The Fake Sharp newsletter- a newsletter about sports betting, DFS, and Best Ball where we don’t pretend to be something we’re not.

We are serving up a Best Ball focused Newsletter today, curating some of the best content from around the industry:

• Best Landing Spots for Bijan Robinson

• This Week’s NFL Best Ball Risers and Fallers

• Best Baller Liam Murphy’s Breaking Down his Winning Teams

• NBA Playoff Best Ball Strategy

Best Landing Spots for Bijan Robinson

Sam’s been pumping out great content. Highlighted in his thread are the best landing spots for Bijan and how to approach drafting him based on the team he lands with.

TL;DR: The cleanest landing sports would be Cincy, Kansas City, and Minnesota. Such is a life for early round RB prospects. Bijan certainly has the talent to dominate a backfield, but as more teams deploy a running back by committee it can be hard drafting early in the season with backfields in flux. Bijan started off the year as a late first round pick and is slowly drifting back into the 2nd round.

NFL Best Ball Risers and Fallers

This Week’s Risers- Lots of RB movement:

• Rashad Penny- Up 27 spots, current ADP of 111. This is the second week in a row where Penny continued to rise. He draws a nut landing spot in Philly. The Eagles led the league in rushing touchdowns in 2022 with 32 TDs, with Dallas as the next highest team with 24. Of the 32 rushing touchdowns, Jalen Hurts had 13. Although Hurts poses a threat to vulture carries around the goal line, Penny will likely see lots of red zone opportunities to cash in, assuming he can stay healthy.

• David Montgomery- Up 20 spots, current ADP of 89. With Jamal Williams (who lead the league in rushing touchdowns in 2022) out of town in Detroit, Montgomery should slot in to see some of the same work as Williams did. The Lions seem content in keeping Swift as their change of pace back and with Underdog being only a half point PPR site, Montgomery is in a prime spot to gobble up touchdown equity.

• Miles Sanders- Up 16 spots, current ADP of 77. The Panthers’ new RB1 continues to rise. With a less crowded backfield than Philly, Sanders should be able to secure the lead roll and benefits from not currently having a QB to vulture some of his goal line touches. He comes with some risk as Carolina may struggle to move the ball.

• Tony Pollard- Up 6 spots, current ADP of 30. With Zeke officially out of Dallas, it comes as no surprise that Pollard should see a boost in production. Coming off of his best season as pro, Pollard has workhorse traits and a solid O-Line to boot. Dallas was second in the league in rushing touchdowns last season and Pollard will be heavily utilized.

• Damien Harris- Up 19 spots, current ADP of 140. The former New England Patriot lands in Buffalo. Buffalo ranked 6th in red zone scoring attempts per game with 3.6. Devin Singletary is now gone and we are not convinced the Bills staff trusts James Cook enough to be the lead back. Harris has an opportunity to outperform his current ADP of 140.

• James Robinson- Up 27 sports, current ADP of 209. Now joining the New England backfield, Robinson was nothing but a late flyer. He sees a nice jump in ADP with Damien Harris now gone and only Rhamondre Stevenson and 4th rounder Pierre Strong to contend with. He’s known to have a nose for the end zone and can be had on the cheap.

• Jeff Wilson- Up 22 spots, current ADP of 164. Miami solidified their backfield plans keeping both Wilson and Raheem Mostert. Wilson is primed to stay productive on a high powered Miami offense.

• Brandin Cooks- Up 12 spots, current ADP of 89. Cooks gets a new QB in Dak Prescott and should be a huge upgrade relative to what he had in Houston. He’s entering the tail end of his career but has still posted six seasons with over 1,000 receiving yards since 2015.

• Adam Thielen- Up 18 spots, current ADP of 152. No surprise here. His production has been on the down side the last few years, but he still has shown the ability to score touchdowns. There isn’t much target competition in Carolina at the moment making him worth a bet on target volume alone.

• Samaje Perine- Up 17 spots, current ADP of 141. He finds a great landing spot in Denver. With Javonte Williams coming off a torn ACL, Perine could be leaned on a bit more early and the season and has shown the chops to play on all three downs.

This Week’s Fallers:

• Deandre Swift- Down 11 spots, current ADP of 68. Coinciding with the rise in Montgomery, Swift continues to slide. The Lions have been content in splitting backfield work and Swift has been anything but consistent. His home-run ability is always tasty but it’s largely dependent on volume.

• Kayshon Boutte- Down 20 spots, current ADP of 193. SHRUGS

• Lamar Jackson-Down 5 spots, current ADP of 49. Jackson slides for the second week in a row. With so much uncertainty surrounding Jackson, it’s hard to feel confident in drafting him. With MVP upside, sometimes you just need to close your eyes and BUY.

• Austin Eckeler- Down 1 spot, current ADP of 12. Not a big change but something to keep and eye on as he has requested a potential trade. All things considered-no matter where he lands, the dude can play. We will continue to buy the dip if he keeps sliding.

• Daniel Bellinger-Down 23 spots, current ADP of 239. Bellinger is coming off a decent rookie season but now faces target competition from Darren Waller at the tight end position. With Waller a far superior talent, Bellinger becomes a fade and was a late round flyer anyway.

• Ezekiel Elliott- Down 14 spots, current ADP of 150. Elliot is still a free agent but has identified a few landing spots in the Jets, Bengals and Eagles. Even with these appealing landing spots, Zeke’s production has been trending down. He’s largely TD dependent at this point and wouldn’t be surprised to see him slide even more.

• Sam Howell-Down 19 spots, current ADP of 206. The Commanders signed Jacoby Brissett to compete in the QB room. The fact remains Howell is a 5th round pick with an unproven track record.

• Pierre Strong-Down 20 spots, current ADP of 230. A 4th round pick going into his second season. The New England backfield got a bit more cloudy when they added James Robinson.

• Joe Burrow-Down 3 spots, current ADP of 38. It’s a bit surprising to see Burrow slide for the second week in a row. We’ve done a few drafts recently drafting out of the 2 spot where we were able to pair Burrow with Chase and Higgins past their current ADP.

• Isiah Mckenzie -Down 19 sports, current ADP of 225. Cut by the Bills and signed by the Colts. He’s still a gadget player but could see some volume in Indy with Parris Campbell shipped to the Giants.

Liam Murphy Breaking Down His Winning Best Ball Teams

NBA PLAYOFF BEST BALL STRATEGY

That’s a wrap for today. If you enjoyed today’s newsletter be sure to share it and follow us on our socials for more info.