Welcome to The Fake Sharp!  

Here’s what we’re serving up:

• Best Ball’s $50,000 Side Bet 🔥 

• The Impending ADP Shift ⛈️ 

• Underdog’s Weekly Winners debate 🧠 

• Musings and more…

The Best Links

💡 Strategy

The Impending ADP Shift by Madison Parhill (link)

Justin Herzig and Hilow debate their Weekly Winners strategy (link)

Cash talks through his Weekly Winners insights (link)

Early-Round RB Best Ball Strategy (link)

🌶️ Player Takes + Stacks

Draft These Third Year WRs- 2023 Fantasy Football (link)

Jack Miller at ETR breaks down team play-calling (link)

Favorite Round by Round Picks on Underdog by Megan Shoup (link)

👀 ICYMI

Unveiling our strategy for Underdog’s Weekly Winners contest  (link)

✅ Best Ball Data

Fantasy Points launches Fantasy Points Data Suite (link)

💣️ New Contest Alert

Draftkings launches $50,000 entry contest with $600,000 prize pool (link)

Best Ball’s $50,000 Side Bet 👀 

Looking to get more action down? These guys are.

This high stakes wager between Justin Herzig and Dan Zack is the first high stakes side bet in Best Ball history.

These two are no slouches when it comes high stakes gambling. Justin Herzig won the original Underdog Best Ball Mania and has been a contributor for Establish The Run for the last three years. Meanwhile, Dan Zack is the reigning 2022 World Poker Series Player of the Year. They came together to create an exciting proposition.

Here’s the breakdown:

The format is meant to be aligned with the incentives of Best Ball Mania 4. They don’t want either player changing the way they are drafting solely based on the bet.

The payouts are proportional based on their performance regarding advance rates and average returns.

When Herzig was asked why he’s doing this, he responded “I’m very passionate about this game and I want to do everything possible to help grow this game”.

Dan Zack’s reasoning was straightforward: “I just wanna get more down. Ultimately, at the end of the day, I’m a fucking gambler”.

We can’t wait to see this play out and hope to see more of these bets in the future!

Musings from The Fake Sharp

• Where is this Romeo Doubs steam coming from? He’s up almost 20 spots since June 1st. He was one of our highest drafted receivers, but the recent rise has been surprising. Interestingly enough, his stack partner Jordan Love has gotten cheaper, moving down 12 spots. Bottom line, Jayden Reed has gotten cheaper and is a viable pivot off of the Doubs hype. 

• We’ve cooled on Luke Musgrave a bit. He was one of our highest drafted players over the last month. Part of this was due to using more late 3-4 tight end builds. He’s been catching some chatter on Twitter but his ADP hasn’t really reflected that. In fact, it’s gone down over the last week. Still a buy.

• We’ve been clicking Gibbs quite a bit on DK. He basically has the same draft capital as Bijan Robinson and is going ~30 picks later. He’s in arguably a better offense and we think the red zone concerns are a bit overblown. (link)

• RIP to a few of our Josh Reynolds shares. Much like Gibbs, we’ve been heavy on the Lions in our recent DK drafts. Goff seems to fall 10+ picks on a consistent basis and often times we’ve whiffed on getting Amon Ra. With 20 spots on DK, we like to pair Goff with Gibbs and a late round stab. Don’t really see us drafting any Mims , but it’s enough to make us stop drafting Reynolds for the time being.

• We watched Dan Zack’s appearance on Justin Herzig’s Best Ball Boardroom to try and get the scoop on their head to head bet but left with some great takeaways on Best Ball Strategy. Which are summed up perfectly by this tweet:

1. Separate the signal from the noise. ADP is the signal. It’s the most efficient tool we have. Don’t force correlations.

2. Start roughly 1-4-5 unless a major ADP value. 3-4 late TE’s.

3. Target ADP discrepancies between Underdog and DraftKings.

Puppy Chow: Bite-Sized Content from around the Industry

That’s a wrap for today. If you enjoyed today’s newsletter be sure to share it and follow us on our socials for more info.